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NFL Week 16 Picks

We are 114-107-3 against the spread and 146-78 straight up for the season.

Tennessee (-3) over San Diego - What a wild ride it has been for the Titans.  They’re finally back to .500 and need this game just to stay alive for a wild card berth.  The Chargers meanwhile have pretty much settled in at the number two seed and won’t be too motivated on the road.  Titans 27-20

Green Bay (-14) over Seattle - The Seahawks either don’t care or have given up. Going to Green Bay against a strong Packers defense has the ingredients of a blowout. Packers 30-6

Kansas City (+13.5) over Cincinnati - The Bengals are clearly the better team in this matchup and they look to right the ship after two straight loses. They don’t really blow anyone out so look for the lowly Chiefs to cover. Bengals 24-13

Buffalo (+9) over Atlanta – The Bills have been playing better and the Falcons won a game they should have lost. Ryan is still hurt and the Bills are running out of healthy QBs. Falcons 21-17

Miami (-3) over Houston - This battle of two .500 teams will go to the tougher team. The Texans are just too soft. Dolphins 27-21

New York Giants (-7) over Carolina - The Giants may just be showing up on time to save their season. The Panthers have lost their last three road games by an average of over ten points. Giants 34-17

Tampa Bay (+14) over New Orleans - The Saints don’t have much to play for and will probably win this game but not care enough to blow out the Bucs. Saints 30-21

Jacksonville (+8) over New England - The Pats are probably the better team in this contest but not by eight points. Expect a close game with the home team pulling one out late. Patriots 24-21

Baltimore (+3) over Pittsburgh - It would have been a really close game but Polamalu is out so that really tips this game in favor of the Ravens. Ravens 24-20

Philadelphia (-7) over Denver – The Eagles have won five straight and the Broncos have struggled on the road. Eagles 27-17

St. Louis (+14.5) over Arizona – The Rams still aren’t winning but have been playing better lately. The Cards are just looking to stay healthy for the playoffs. Cardinals 24-13

Detroit (+12.5) over San Francisco – Both teams don’t have anything to play for so I’ll go with the home team here. 49ers 20-10

Indianapolis (-5.5) over New York Jets – The Jets are probably the last threat to Manning’s perfect season. They’ve play some close ones lately but this one won’t be one of them. Colts 28-13

Washington (+6.5) over Dallas – Expect another close game here not unlike their first meeting. Redskins 17-13

Minnesota (-7) over Chicago - Look for Favre to right the ship here and throw at least three TDs. Vikings 38-17

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NFL Week 15 picks

We are 104-102-2 against the spread and 137-71 straight up for the season.

Indianapolis (-3) over Jacksonville – The Jaguars usually put up a good fight against the Colts but fall short.  Look for another close game but the Jags won’t prevent Manning from moving closer to a perfect season.  Colts 21-17

New Orleans (-7.5) over Dallas – The Saints have been winning all season but their last two games have been close but unlike those games this one is at home.  Brees will pull another one out here in the fourth quarter.  Saints 28-20

Green Bay (+1.5) over Pittsburgh – The Packers are playing as well as anyone right now and the Steelers season is just about over.  They couldn’t stop the Browns so what chance will they have against Rodgers?  Packers 27-23

Miami (+5) over Tennessee – The Dolphins primary weapon, Williams, will have a tough time against the Titans solid run defense.  Miami on paper should lose this game but like the Titans they’ve been very resilient are Read More»

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Start’em, Sit’em Week 15

Start’em

Tony Romo, QB, DAL – The Saints have allowed two 300 yard passers in their last two games.  They’ll likely trail and Romo will probably be putting up the ball a lot to keep up with Brees.

Laurence Maroney, RB, NE – He’s been playing his best ball in years and the Bills porous run defense along with potential winter weather should lead to another productive day.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – He should follow up last week 20 carry 99 yard day with another good outing at home.  The Bills will keep it on the ground and hope to keep Brady at bay.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – He’s the only man in the backfield with Buckhalter hobbled once again.  Nice match up against the Raiders as well.

Jamaal Charles, RB, KC – Coming off a great game against a weak run defense he gets another easy one against the Browns.

Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ – The Falcons have been generous to opposing WRs and Edwards should haul in a couple of long passes.

Sit’em

Roddy White, WR, ATL – The Jets Revis will be all over White. He may be the league’s premier shut down corner now.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – Tough match up against the stellar Ravens run defense.

Ryan Grant, RB, GB – Much tougher match up this week against a solid Steelers run defense.

Jonathan Stewart, RB, CAR – The Panthers will probably be playing from behind limiting his chances.

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League Results

Well, it was a long season with a lot of injuries and some good scrambling on the waiver wire on my part.  Out of the four fantasy leagues I participate in, I made the playoffs in three of them.  The one I didn’t make the playoffs was the most disappointing because it was my big money league.  In that league, I was down to one healthy RB last week and it was an uphill battle most of the season.

As a follow up to the league I wrote about earlier this year.  The Miller Sports Fantasy Network has concluded its regular season and I’m happy to announce that I made the playoffs.  Here are the final regular season standings.

Rank Team W-L-T PCT. Pts. Streak
*1. fantasyfootballtrader.com 9-4-1 0.679 1293 L-1
*2. defactotum.wordpress.com 9-5 0.643 1357 W-3
*3. ffballer.com 9-5 0.643 1292 W-3
*4. millercards.net 9-5 0.643 1242 L-1
5 redskinsgab.com 8-5-1 0.607 1098 L-2
6 postgamepub.com 8-6 0.571 1335 W-1
7 hattywaiverwireguru.com 8-6 0.571 1107 L-1
8 detroithustle.wordpress.com 7-7 0.5 1310 L-2
9 thefootballmaniac.com 7-7 0.5 1292 W-2
10 blacksportsonline.com 3-11 0.214 1155 L-2
11 friendsoftheprogram.net 3-11 0.214 972 W-1
12 fantasyfootballcalculator.com 3-11 0.214 952 W-1
* Clinched Playoff

It was an interesting season for me in this league. I started 1-4 and then went 8-1 to make the playoffs.  I managed my run due to some key waiver pick ups, the most notable being Ricky Williams after someone dropped him.  A miraculous occurrence for me since he is currently the sixth best RB in our league.  At the time he was not getting many carries with Ronnie Brown around so sometimes you just have to keep a sharp eye for opportunities like that.

Looking ahead to the playoffs, here are my picks.

Defactotum (-7) over FFballer – The RB match up is the key to this game.  Adrian Peterson and Cedric Benson both have nice match ups for Defactotum while FFballer has Ricky Williams going against a tough Tennessee run defense.  Couple that with a still injured Turner, FFballer will need miracle here.

Fantasy Football Trader (-3.5) over Miller Sports Cards - This will be a close game with Miller having a solid set of RBs in Thomas Jones and Frank Gore.  FFT has a big advantage with their WRs/TE and that will be the deciding factor in this game.

Update – 12/25/2009

As predicted Defactotum will play Fantasy Football Trader in the Finals.  I lost a high scoring game against Defactotum and Miller Sports Cards’ team didn’t bother showing up in the first round.  In both cases the better team won.

Here’s my prediction for the finals.

Defactotum (-13.5) over Fantasy Football Trader – Defactotum is just a loaded team with too much fire power.  Fantasy Football Trader does have Brees but now that the Saints lost a game, he may not play as much down the stretch.

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NFL Week 14 Picks

We are 98-93-1 against the spread and 125-67 straight up for the season.

Pittsburgh (-10) over Cleveland – The Browns kept it close the first time but the Steelers need to run the table and won’t take any foe lightly.  Steelers 30-13

Denver (+7) over IndianapolisThe Broncos are the last hurdle between Manning and a perfect season.  They’ll win but it’ll be a close one.  Colts 21-17

Cincinnati (+6.5) over Minnesota – This game means a lot more for the Bengals trying to be the number two seed in the AFC than it does for the Vikings who can’t really catch the Saints.  Bengals 24-20

New York Jets (-3) over Tampa BayThe last easy game for the Jets so they need to win this one if they hope to still make the playoffs.  Jets 17-13

Buffalo (-1) over Kansas City – The Chiefs have been blown out their last two games and the Bills are playing better under their new coach.  Bills 27-14

Green Bay (-3) over ChicagoThe Packers are on a roll and should be able to repeat an earlier win over the Bears.  Packers 27-17

New Orleans (-10.5) over AtlantaInjuries and a weak secondary will keep the Falcons from even keeping this one close.  Saints 35-17

Detroit (+13.5) over BaltimoreThe Ravens have been a .500 team in their last six games and for the season.  They’ll win but won’t run away.  Ravens 28-17

Jacksonville (-3) over MiamiThe Jaguars have not lost at home since their opener.  Jaguars 23-17

New England (-13) over CarolinaThe Pats have lost two straight but will stop the bleeding at home.  Patriots 35-13

Houston (-6.5) over SeattleThe Seahawks are terrible on the road and have nothing to really play for.  Texans 28-14

St. Louis (+13) over Tennessee – The Titans have a lot less to play for than last week and the Rams have been playing better lately.  Titans 21-17

Washington (-1) over OaklandThe Skins have lost three straight but all three opponents are playoff caliber teams.  Redskins 24-10

San Diego (-3) over DallasThe Chargers have won seven straight and should handle the Cowboys inconsistent offense.  Chargers 30-24

New York Giants (-1) over PhiladelphiaThe Giants need this game a lot more than the Eagles.  Giants 24-21

San Francisco (+3.5) over Arizona – The Niners return to Monday night after a long absence in a game that matters more to them to a Cards team well in control of their division.  49ers 24-21

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Start’em Sit’em Week 14

Start’em

Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pit – The Browns allow 4.5 YPC and he has been running well as of late.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT – He should be able to have another solid game after last week’s 149 yard performance.

Marques Colston, WR, NO – The Falcons have been easy to throw on and more attention will be placed on Meachem this week.

Ray Rice, RB, BAL ­– Should see an increase in carries when the Ravens get a quick lead on the Lions.

Fred Jackson, RB, BUF – Now the starter, Jackson has an easier match up this week against the porous Chiefs.

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ – He’ll have a field day against the lowly Bucs defense.

Vernon Davis, TE, SF – The Cards have been generous to opposing TEs so far.

Sit’em

Kevin Smith, RB, DET – The Ravens have a solid run defense and the Lions will probably be playing from behind.

Matt Forte, RB, GB – His nightmare season continues against a tough Green Bay defense.

Chris Chambers, WR, KC – You can run on the Bills but their pass defense is actually tough.

Antonio Bryant, WR, TAM – Tough match up against the Jets Revis.

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Do Carries have an Impact on Fantasy Football Running Backs Down the Stretch?

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

12/05/2009

This article is meant to explore the impact of an increased workload on fantasy football running backs towards the end of the season.  It is common knowledge that running backs tend to wear down as the season goes on.  However, in the age of the running back by committee is this really true?  What type of impact can we expect from an increased workload on an NFL running back?

Going into the fantasy draft we tend to hear statements like: “player X averaged more than 600 carries over the past two years, so his body is likely to breakdown at some point in the season.”  While we have not explored the statistical validity of those types of statements my gut tells me there is some truth there.  However, the question we are after is if the leagues leaders in carries breakdown or suffer any type of performance degradation toward the end of the current season.

To answer this question we used a data set from the 2008 season containing the league leaders in carrier per game (CPG).   We chose to use CPG over carries because the data set would then include players who eventually broke down due to injury.   The assumption being that the high CPG contributed to their injury. Alongside CPG we then broke out the splits of avg yards per carry by month.  Finally, we calculated a percent change between months and looked at the averages across each month.  Note: LT and D.Williams were removed from the data set because they received a significant number of additional carries down the stretch due to a member of their RBBC going down to injury.  Ced Benson was also removed as his statistics down the stretch were due to him becoming the primary ball carrier. Read More»

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Using Looks Per Game Trending As a Leading Player Performance Indicator

BleacherCreatureRotoTalk.com

It happens every week – you take a look at your line up and are left with the question, “who do I start?”  We all have our star players that anchor our team, the must start no questions asked players.  However, there is a second tier of players on every fantasy football team whose presence in the weekly lineup is determined by the match up with the opposing defense.  If you have been reading BleacherCreatureRotoTalk your defense and kicker should fall into this category.  After the defense and kicker the players whose fate lies in the match up will vary based on the fantasy managers draft strategy.  This article will explore Targets per Game as an additional metric to be used alongside studying match ups as a tool for optimizing fantasy football lineups.

Targets per game is simply defined as how many looks per game a player is getting.  In the receiving game catches is simply not an accurate measurement of a receivers involvement in the football game.  It is fully possibly for a receiver to have the ball thrown his way over ten times during the course of a game and then walk away with zero catches at the end of the day.   Read More»

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NFL Week 13 Picks

We are 92-83-1 against the spread and 114-62 straight up for the season.

Buffalo (+3) over New York Jets – The Bills beat them earlier in the season and should be able to repeat that at home.  Bills 17-14

Pittsburgh (-14.5) over Oakland – The Steelers are reeling after three straight losses and the Raiders offer some welcomed relief.  Steelers 30-10

Denver (-4.5) over Kansas City - The Chiefs struggle against teams that can get to Cassel.  Broncos 27-10

Jacksonville (Pick) over Houston – The Jags have won their last four at home and they already beaten Houston earlier on the road.  Jaguars 27-24

Tennessee (+6.5) over Indianapolis – The Colts are looking to go undefeated while the Titans are looking to continue their miraculous turnaround.  The Colts are looking to make history.  Colts 24-20

Philadelphia (-5) over Atlanta – Both teams have major injuries to key players but the Falcons are missing their QB.  Eagles 34-20

New Orleans (-9.5) over Washington – The Skins have only lost one game at home by double digits but this game is against the undefeated Saints.  Saints 24-10

Cincinnati (-13) over Detroit – The Lions have made it a habit of getting blown out on the road.  Bengals 34-10

Carolina (-5) over Tampa Bay – The Panthers should be able to rack up the yards on the ground and keep this game out of reach.  Panthers 27-14

Chicago (-9) over St. Louis – The Rams have been playing better but are bad.  The Bears have at least beaten up on bad teams this year.  Bears 35-17

San Diego (-13.5) over Cleveland – The Chargers have been on a sneaky six game win streak blowing out their last two opponents.  Chargers 38-13

San Francisco (Pick) over Seattle - The Niners still have an outside shot at the playoffs and are desperate to at least get back to .500.  49ers 20-17

Minnesota (-3) over Arizona – The Vikings are a bad matchup for any team that has a QB that can’t get hit too often.  Vikings 28-20

New York Giants (+2.5) over Dallas – A must win game for the Giants.  Giants 24-20

New England (-4) over Miami – The loss of Brown is starting to show.  Patriots 27-20

Green Bay (-3) over Ravens – The suddenly hot Packers look to solidify their hold on to a wildcard berth.  Packers 24-17

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NFL Start’em, Sit’em Week 13

Start’em

Thomas Jones, RB, NYJ – He should have another good outing against a generous Buffalo defense.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Jackson will likely be out which means Maclin becomes the top dog.

LeSean McCoy, RB, PHI – The Falcons are vulnerable against the run and this will be a high scoring game.

Matt Forte, RB, CHI – The Rams allow 4.8 YPC.

Greg Olsen, TE, CHI – Easy match up against the Rams and he has become Cutler’s go to guy.

Chad Ochocinco, WR, CIN – The Lions allow 281 passing yards per game.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – Denver should get an early lead on the Chiefs which will mean a lot of carries for Moreno.

Sit’em

Terrell Owens, WR, BUF – Revis and the Jets have been tough against opposing WRs.

Kevin Smith, RB, CIN – The Bengals are tough to run on and the Lions will be trailing early.

Chris Chambers, WR, KC – He’s had a good run but the Denver will be able to get heat on Cassel.

Santonio Holmes, WR, PIT – Will see too much of the league’s top corner.

Beanie Wells, RB, ARI – Pass protection will be key against a rush happy Vikings team.  Hightower happens to be better in this area.

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