Knowshon Moreno is destined to start

Knowshon Moreno was the number 12 overall selection and the highest RB taken in the 2009 NFL draft.  He will compete with Correll Buckhalter and LaMont Jordan in Denver’s crowded backfield.  Both veterans are competent runners with Jordan and Buckhalter averaging 4.5 and 4.9 ypc respectively in 2008.  These numbers however were in very limited duty and only Jordan has ever been a starter in the league.  Jordan’s ypc as a starter were less impressive when he only averaged 3.8 ypc in three seasons with the Raiders.

Historically, high first round RB draftees have been given significant carries in their rookie years.  They may not always be starters in their first year but they have gotten their share of carries.  Here is a list of first round RBs from the last three years.

As you can see, if history is an indicator, Moreno will either start or get a significant amount of the carries. RBs drafted this early don’t get picked to sit on the bench. RBs have a very short shelf life in the NFL compared to QBs and WRs so it is imperative a team gets maximum value from their investment. How many 35 year old starting RBs do you see in the NFL? This factor coupled with the fragility of the competition, Jordan and Buckhalter have been frequently injured, leads me to the conclusion that Moreno will start at some point in the season. From a fantasy perspective, I wouldn’t reach for him early but if he’s there in the 5th round it’s definitely a gamble worth taking.  The above list indicates you may potentially be getting a first rounder in the 5th round, now that’s value.